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Machinery industry: drivers sales growth of 19% in March, needs to improve to verify again
According to the latest engineering machinery association, according to data from the national excavator sales in March 13744, an increase of 19.35%, 1-3 month accumulative total sales of 20348 units, up 15% from a year earlier.
March peak season sales growth of 19%, macro to micro multidimensional data confirm demand side improve each other.
After the monthly growth of 39.79% in February, march drivers sales growth of 19.35% again, because the Spring Festival this year, ahead of market generally peak season demand in early February overdraft, judging from the results.From several aspects can confirm demand side in continuous improvement: (1) from the micro perspective, infrastructure projects (railway construction and agricultural infrastructure construction, etc.) and real estate projects do a slightly better compared to the new situation;(2) the main brands monitoring of excavator starts is recovered to a relatively high level, at the same time, komatsu excavator work hours had increased 12.34% in February;(3) used active trading market, the main makers used capacity is about three times during the same period last year;(4) the macro aspect, manufacturing PMI in March was 50.2%, than up 1.2% last month, the first time since last August back to line from above.In addition, the industrial enterprises above designated size 1-2 month profit year-on-year growth of 4.8%, in 2015 changed the full-year profit decline.
"The two" switch "the three" disturbance factors, but the effect is limited.
On April 1, makers may not be sold production and assembly "the second" the engine of the machine.In march, therefore, is that the three countries in two of the last window, the numerous second-tier brands makers to inventory pressure, implemented depreciate sales promotion measures, make the march sales have certain impulsive effect exists.But, we consider the drivers market supply situation, second-line brand sales account for the relatively small, so the overall sales promotion effect is relatively weak, we measure, after switch industry in March to remove the two factors, there are still about 15% growth.
From the point of structure, big dig faster growth, at the same time, industry concentration further increased.
In terms of the structure of domestic marketing segmentation, the little dig up 16.95% from a year earlier, digging up 10.12% from a year earlier, in the big dig an increase of 72.51%, the three were 62%, 62% and 9%, year-on-year increase of big dig accounted for 3%.Big dig growth ascension also shows that in the field of construction, mining and other large engineering demand increased.In terms of industry concentration, trinity, share up to 19%, compared with 2015 the year increased by 2%, to further improve concentration.
Investment advice: march as traditional excavator sales season, can often determine the year's sales.
Combining with the current macro environment, demand side has improved, we believe that the demand for the year and sales can keep optimistic attitude.But for the price elasticity is likely to remain weak.To travel into the risk concentration release later this year, the enterprise accounts receivable and bad debt losses will improve synchronously and the host enterprises improve relative profits on the assets and liabilities end end more apparent,.We suggest that the focus on leading enterprises, sany, zoomlion and liugong, positive attention after the rental market at the same time, key enterprises building machine is st.